U.S. Corn - 2.437 billion bushel carryout, down 50 million bushels from November.
This month’s 2017/18 U.S. corn outlook is for increased corn used to
produce ethanol and reduced ending stocks. Corn used to produce ethanol is raised 50
million bushels to 5.525 billion, based on increased sorghum export commitments, and the
most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report, which
estimated a lower-than-expected amount of sorghum used to produce ethanol during
October. With no other use changes, ending stocks are down 50 million bushels from last
month. The projected season-average farm price is unchanged this month at a midpoint of
$3.20 per bushel but the range is narrowed 5 cents on each end to $2.85 to $3.55 per
2017/18 Corn Stocks to Use at 16.82%.
World Corn ending stocks at 204.08 MMT up slightly from November.
For sorghum, recent large purchases by China have increased sorghum prices relative to corn, sharply reducing the estimated amount of sorghum used to produce ethanol. With expectations of increased U.S. sorghum exports to China, projected food, seed, and industrial use for sorghum is reduced by 50 million bushels, with an offsetting 50 million bushel increase in exports.
Foreign corn production is forecast higher with increases for China, the EU, Laos, and Guatemala more than offsetting a reduction for Russia. China’s corn production is raised based on the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics. EU corn production is higher, mostly reflecting an increase for Romania that more than offsets declines for several countries. Corn exports are lowered for Russia but raised for the EU. Foreign corn ending stocks are raised from last month, largely reflecting increases for China, the EU, and Brazil that more than offset declines for Egypt and Mexico. Global corn stocks, at 204.1 million tons, are up slightly from last month.
U.S. Soybean - 17/18 ending stocks at 445 million bushels, up 20 million from November.
Total U.S. oilseed production for 2017/18 is projected at 132.2 million tons, up
slightly due to a small increase in cottonseed. Soybean exports are reduced 25 million
bushels to 2,225 million on stronger-than-expected competition from Argentina and Brazil
during the first quarter of the marketing year. Seed use is raised in line with projected
plantings in the recently released tables to be included in the upcoming Long Term
Agricultural Projections to 2027 report https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/projections.htm.
Soybean ending stocks for 2017/18 are projected at 445 million bushels, up 20 million from
last month and still the highest since 2006/07.
Following the December 5, 2017 affirmative determination by the U.S. International Trade
Commission regarding countervailing duties on biodiesel imports from Argentina and
Indonesia, soybean oil used for domestic production of methyl ester is raised 500 million
pounds to 7.5 billion. Reduced soybean oil exports and non-ester domestic use are
offsetting, leaving projected ending stocks unchanged at 1.62 billion pounds.
The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2017/18 is narrowed to $8.60 to $10.00
per bushel. The soybean meal and soybean oil price ranges are unchanged at $295 to $335
per short ton and 32.5 to 36.5 cents per pound, respectively.
2017/18 Soybean Stocks to Use at 10.3%
World Soybeans endings stocks increase to 98.3 MMT.
Global oilseed exports for 2017/18 are raised 0.5 million tons to 176.3 million with higher
soybean exports for Argentina and Brazil and higher rapeseed exports for Canada. Partly
offsetting are lower soybean exports for the United States and Canada, and lower
sunflowerseed exports for Argentina. Global soybean stocks are up 0.4 million tons to 98.3
million, with lower stocks in South America offset by higher stocks in the United States,
Canada, and the EU.
Summary by Chris Benson
source: USDA WADSE
Full report here
It all starts with Perfect Competition
The producers of corn and soybeans operate in a perfectly competitive marketplace. Each competitive firm in this environment is a "price taker" that can exert no influence over output prices. The characteristics that make up a perfect competitive marketplace are:
To learn more about perfect competition, I would suggest the book Principles of Agricultural Economics by Andrew Barkley and Paul W. Barkley.
Evaluate your success on how well you followed your plan, not just on results. You can control the decisions you make, you can't control the market.
The Heat Map Marketing Strategy
A Grain Marketing Plan
Over the last 25 years, I have gained a great deal of experience in the agricultural commodity industry. I have witnessed market conditions in numerous areas of agriculture, from beef and pork processing, feeding livestock, to personally trading livestock and grain futures. This knowledge has taught me that the markets are driven by human behavior and events, both of which are unpredictable and create uncertainty in agriculture.
With that said, I believe that the users and producers of commodities give good insight into their fundamental view of the current market conditions. Therefore, I developed my model based on their activity in the market. The Heat Maps are a mechanical indicator that visual displays the hedging activity by the users and producers of a commodity and its price. This visual analysis provides strong indication of supply and demand, price equilibrium, and potential market behavior in a way that is unique and easy to decipher.
My model is not a guarantee and will not always be 100% accurate. However, I do believe that it provides a process and a plan, that over time, will allow the producer of commodities to achieve above average prices.
Chris Benson is the founder of The Ag Fix and Director of Applied Agriculture and Food Studies at Morningside College in Sioux City, Ia. Chris has 25 years of experience in the red meat production, livestock, grain and futures markets.