The Weekend Fix
Some things to think about.
Can we continue this pace of exports and raise prices?
We are exporting a boat load of corn and a bunch of trains to our southern friends. Since September 1, the U.S. has accumulated 818,911,641 bushels of corn for export. These are big numbers and we need to pick up this pace to meet the USDA latest WASDE projection of 2,250,000,000 bushels. We need to average 1,087 MT per week to hit the latest export estimate. The current YTD average is just over 904 MT per week. We'll need to make up 168,000,0000 bushels to hit the latest USDA estimate. The chart below displays the current accumulated exports and the number needed weekly.
Something that continues to stick out to me is the cash corn level July/Oct of 2016 in relationship to July/Oct of 2015. The lowest price levels in years, surely encouraged the large book of export business into harvest and forward. Additionally, the drought shortened Safrinha Brazilian corn crop in the spring of 2016 helped U.S. exports late last summer. As you can see in the chart below, we are now trading above a year ago, price levels. It will be important we continue to book export sales at the pace needed to meet USDA at these higher price levels.
By Chris Benson
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