The Weekend Fix
Some things to think about.
U.S. Corn Highlights
Projected corn production for 2017/18 is unchanged at 14,065 million bushels. USDA will release the Acreage report on June 30, providing a survey-based estimate of corn area planted and a forecast of area harvested for grain. The season average corn price received by producers is unchanged from last month at $3.00 to $3.80 per bushel.
World Corn Highlights
This month’s 2017/18 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, increased trade and reduced stocks relative to last month. EU corn production is down based on government data indicating lower-than-expected area in France and Germany. Canada corn production is lowered on reductions to both area and yield, as wetter-than-normal conditions in Ontario and Quebec during May delayed plantings and are expected to reduce yield prospects. Ukraine corn production is raised based on reported planting progress to date indicating a level of planted area above previous expectations. Turkey’s barley production is raised as the impact of April dryness was not as severe as previously anticipated. For 2016/17, Brazil corn production is raised as above-normal rainfall in the Center-West during May boosts yield prospects. South Africa corn production is higher reflecting the latest production estimate from the government. Major global trade changes for 2017/18 include higher projected corn exports for Ukraine and Russia, with increased corn imports for the EU. Foreign corn ending stocks are lowered from last month, with reductions for Canada, the EU and Russia more than offsetting increases for South Africa and Ukraine.
U.S. Soybean Highlights
This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2017/18 are little changed from last month. Higher beginning stocks reflect a lower crush projection for 2016/17. Soybean crush for 2016/17 is reduced 15 million bushels to 1,910 million mainly reflecting reduced domestic soybean meal disappearance. Soybean ending stocks for 2016/17 are projected at 450 million bushels, up 15 million from last month. Ending stocks for 2017/18 are also raised 15 million bushels to 495 million.
World Soybean Highlights
Global oilseed production changes for 2016/17 include higher soybean production in Brazil and Argentina and higher peanut production in India. Global soybean production is raised 3.3 million tons to 351.3 million. The Brazil soybean crop is projected up 2.4 million tons to 114.0 million reflecting increased yields in more recently harvested areas, particularly Rio Grande do Sul. With higher global production in 2016/17, the beginning stocks for 2017/18 are raised 3.1 million tons to 93.2 million. The larger beginning stocks combined with a 0.5- million-ton reduction to Argentina soybean exports in 2017/18 results in a 3.4-million-ton increase to 92.2 million to global soybean stocks at the end of the 2017/18 marketing year.
by Chris Benson
source: USDA WASDE
Row Crop Package
Try the RISK- FREE trial for 30 days.