The Weekend Fix
Some things to think about.
U.S. Corn Highlights - 2.335 billion bushel carryout
This month’s 2017/18 U.S. corn outlook is for increased production, greater feed and residual use, higher ending stocks, and lower prices. Corn production is forecast at 14.184 billion bushels, up 32 million from last month. Corn supplies are up from last month, as a larger crop more than offsets a small decline in beginning stocks due to updated use estimates for 2016/17. Feed and residual use for 2017/18 is raised 25 million bushels with a larger crop and lower expected prices. Corn used for ethanol for 2017/18 is projected down 25 million bushels at 5.475 billion, based on observed usage during 2016/17 and expectations of lower exports. Other industrial use is lowered 50 million bushels. With supply increasing and use falling, corn ending stocks are up 62 million bushels from last month. The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents on both ends to a range of $2.80 to $3.60 per bushel.
2017/18 Corn Stocks to Use at 16.39%
World Corn ending stocks up 1.6 at 202.50 MMT.
US Soybean Highlights - 17/18 ending stocks at 475 million
U.S. oilseed production for 2017/18 is projected at 132.8 million tons, up 1.9 million from last month with higher soybean, peanut, and cottonseed production forecasts. Soybean production is projected at a record 4,431 million bushels, up 50 million on a higher yield forecast. Soybean supplies are raised with higher production only partly offset by lower beginning stocks. With increased supplies and lower prices, soybean exports are raised to 2,250 million bushels leaving ending stocks unchanged.
Soybean oil balance sheet changes for 2017/18 include reduced beginning stocks and supplies and higher use for biodiesel production reflecting recently imposed duties for imported biodiesel from Argentina and Indonesia. Despite reduced forecasts for other domestic use and exports, ending stocks are projected lower.
The 2017/18 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $8.35 to $10.05 per bushel, down $0.10 at the midpoint. Soybean meal prices are also lower at $290 to $330 per short ton while soybean oil prices are projected higher at 32.5 to 36.5 cents per pound. Rising soybean oil prices relative to soybean meal reflects additional demand as increased use of domestic biodiesel feedstock partly offsets reduced biodiesel imports in 2018.
Changes for 2016/17 include higher exports, higher crush, and lower ending stocks. Exports are increased 20 million to 2,170 million bushels based on official trade data through July and indications from August export inspections. With crush raised 5 million bushels, ending stocks are projected at 345 million bushels, down 25 million from last month.
2017/18 Soybean Stocks to Use at 11.0%
World Soybean Highlights - World Stocks down slightly
The 2017/18 foreign oilseed production is projected at 445.8 million tons, nearly unchanged from last month. Reductions for soybeans and rapeseed are offset with gains for cottonseed and sunflowerseed. Lower soybean production for Uruguay and Serbia is partly offset by higher production for Bolivia. Canola production is reduced for Canada on lower reported area and cottonseed is raised for India based on the latest government planting data. Foreign sunflowerseed production is slightly higher as larger projected crops for Argentina, Turkey, and the EU more than offset lower projections for Ukraine and Bolivia. Foreign oilseed exports for 2017/18 are reduced this month mainly on lower soybean shipments for Uruguay. Soybean imports are raised for China and Thailand reflecting higher U.S. exports. Foreign oilseed stocks for 2017/18 are projected higher as a 1.5-million-ton reduction for Brazilian soybean stocks due to a lower carryin is offset by increased soybean stocks for China, Bolivia, and Argentina, and larger canola stocks in Canada. Canola stocks in Canada are adjusted with the final 2016/17 crop and stocks estimates recently issued by Statistics Canada.
Summary by Chris Benson
source: USDA WADSE
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